Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
